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Can they keep up with climate change? : integrating specific dispersal abilities of protected Odonata in species distribution modelling

Title data

Jaeschke, Anja ; Bittner, Torsten ; Reineking, Björn ; Beierkuhnlein, Carl:
Can they keep up with climate change? : integrating specific dispersal abilities of protected Odonata in species distribution modelling.
In: Insect Conservation and Diversity. Vol. 6 (January 2013) Issue 1 . - pp. 93-103.
ISSN 1752-458X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-4598.2012.00194.x

Abstract in another language

1. The effects of climate change on the distribution of species are typically inferred using bioclimatic envelope models, assuming either no or unrestricted dispersal abilities. Information on species-specific dispersal abilities, especially of animals, is rarely incorporated. 2. We analysed European records of two damselflies and four dragonflies protected by the Habitats Directive of the European Union. In addition to no or unrestricted dispersal scenarios, we considered species-specific dispersal distances based on literature information to improve realism in assessing conservation implications of climate change. The climate model HadCM3 and the emission scenario A2 were applied to project potential changes in occurrence probabilities up to 2035. As modelling algorithms, generalised linear models (GLM) and boosted regression trees (BRT) were used.
3. The species Coenagrion ornatum, Coenagrion mercuriale and Ophiogomphus cecilia are projected to lose range (up to −68%) when incorporating specific dispersal distances, while they are projected to extend their range (up to +23%) in the unrestricted dispersal scenario. Furthermore, suitable climatic conditions tend to decline for Leucorrhinia albifrons and Leucorrhina caudalis (up to −73%), whereas Leucorrhinia pectoralis is projected to gain distribution area (up to +37%) assuming either species-specific or unrestricted dispersal and subsequently successful breeding. Cross-validated model performance (AUC values) ranges between 0.77 and 0.92.4. The integration of species-specific knowledge about dispersal distances in species distribution models promises to improve estimates of potential range changes and their implications for conservation management. Contrasting model results under different dispersal scenarios highlight the importance of research on species’ ecology including dispersal distances

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Additional notes: BAYCEER107544
BAYCEER104251
Institutions of the University: Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Chair Biogeography > Chair Biogeography - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Professorship Disturbance Ecology > Professorship Disturbance Ecology - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Anke Jentsch
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Junior Professorship Biogeographical Modelling
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Former Professors > Junior Professorship Biogeographical Modelling - Juniorprof. Dr. Björn Reineking
Research Institutions > Research Centres > Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research- BayCEER
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Chair Biogeography
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Professorship Disturbance Ecology
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Research Centres
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Former Professors
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 500 Science
Date Deposited: 29 Apr 2015 15:41
Last Modified: 30 Apr 2015 09:21
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/11596