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Beating the Market? : A Mathematical Puzzle to Market Efficiency


Baumann, Michael Heinrich:
Beating the Market? : A Mathematical Puzzle to Market Efficiency.
Veranstaltung: Forschungsseminar am Lehrstuhl für Finanzierung und Banken der Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg , 6. November 2018 , Halle, Deutschland.
(Veranstaltungsbeitrag: Vortragsreihe , Vortrag )


The efficient market hypothesis is highly discussed - supported and criticized - in economic literature. In its strongest form, it states that there are no price trends. When weakening the non-trending assumption only a little to arbitrary short, small, and fully unknown trends, I mathematically prove, for a specific class of control-based trading strategies, positive expected gains. These strategies are model-free, i.e., a trader neither has to estimate market parameters as the trend's sign nor has to think about predictable patterns, etc. That means, since the trader does not have to know any trend, even trends too small to find them are enough to beat the market. Adjustments for risk and comparisons with buy-and-hold strategies do not satisfactorily solve the problem. In addition, in an exemplary backtesting study, when transaction costs and bid-ask-spreads are taken into account, I still observe, on average, positive gains. In this work, I bring together the economists' view on efficient markets and the engineers' view on feedback trading.

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Publikationsform: Veranstaltungsbeitrag (Vortrag)
Begutachteter Beitrag: Nein
Keywords: Technical Analysis; Efficient Market Hypothesis; Robust Positive Expectation Property; Simultaneously Long Short Trading; Control-based Trading Strategies
Fachklassifikationen: JEL codes C02, G11, G14
Institutionen der Universität: Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik > Mathematisches Institut
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik > Mathematisches Institut > Lehrstuhl Mathematik V (Angewandte Mathematik)
Fakultäten > Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät > Fachgruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre
Profilfelder > Advanced Fields
Profilfelder > Advanced Fields > Nichtlineare Dynamik
Forschungseinrichtungen > Forschungszentren > Forschungszentrum für Modellbildung und Simulation (MODUS)
Titel an der UBT entstanden: Ja
Themengebiete aus DDC: 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
Eingestellt am: 14 Jan 2019 15:30
Letzte Änderung: 14 Jan 2019 15:30
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/46916