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Ex ante assessment of disruptive threats : Identifying relevant threats before one is disrupted

Title data

Blume, Maximilian ; Oberländer, Anna Maria ; Rosemann, Michael ; Röglinger, Maximilian ; Wyrtki, Katrin:
Ex ante assessment of disruptive threats : Identifying relevant threats before one is disrupted.
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 158 (September 2020) . - No. 120103.
ISSN 0040-1625
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120103

Official URL: Volltext

Abstract in another language

The shortening of product life-cycles accompanied by the rapid development of new products and dissolving industry boundaries are indicative of a multitude of potentially disruptive threats. The survival of incumbents depends on their capability to effectively anticipate and manage such threats. Thus, the early anticipation of disruptive threats to react or prepare for their impacts is a crucial topic in practice and academia. Although the current body of knowledge provides numerous approaches to disruption anticipation, a comprehensive conceptualisation of the evolution of disruptive threats is missing. Moreover, incumbents lack guidance on how to effectively anticipate disruptive threats. To address this gap, we propose the Disruption Evolution Framework (DEF), which conceptualises the course of disruptive threats along three phases (i.e. threat possible, apparent, and materialised) as well as distinguishes four interrelated categories of signals (i.e. context, catalyst, capability, and company signals) and threats (i.e. customer, competitor, product, and poli-cy threats). Building on the DEF, we also propose the Disruptability Assessment Method (DAM), which enables incum-bents to systematically assess disruptive threats via a step-by-step procedure. We evaluated the DAM in the Corporate Development and the Global Digital Partnerships departments of an insurance company. Overall, our work contributes to the descriptive and prescriptive knowledge on disruption anticipation.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Disruptive threats; Disruptive signals; Anticipating disruption; Situational method engineering
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration > Chair Information Systems and Value-Based Business Process Management
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration > Chair Information Systems and Value-Based Business Process Management > Chair Information Systems and Value-Based Business Process Management - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Maximilian Röglinger
Profile Fields > Emerging Fields > Innovation and Consumer Protection
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes > Fraunhofer Project Group Business and Information Systems Engineering
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes > FIM Research Center Finance & Information Management
Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics
Profile Fields
Profile Fields > Emerging Fields
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 000 Computer Science, information, general works > 004 Computer science
300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Date Deposited: 16 Jul 2020 08:01
Last Modified: 22 Jul 2020 12:05
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/55836