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Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change

Title data

Mathes, Gregor H. ; van Dijk, Jeroen ; Kiessling, Wolfgang ; Steinbauer, Manuel J.:
Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change.
In: Nature Ecology & Evolution. (January 2021) .
ISSN 2397-334X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01377-w

Project information

Project financing: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

Abstract in another language

Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Department of Sport Science > Professor Sport Ecology
Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Department of Sport Science > Professor Sport Ecology > Professor Sport Ecology - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Manuel Jonas Steinbauer
Profile Fields > Advanced Fields > Ecology and the Environmental Sciences
Research Institutions > Research Centres > Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research- BayCEER
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 500 Science > 500 Natural sciences
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences, geology
500 Science > 560 Fossils, prehistoric life
500 Science > 570 Life sciences, biology
500 Science > 590 Animals (Zoology)
Date Deposited: 27 Jan 2021 09:07
Last Modified: 27 Jan 2021 09:07
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/62445