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Simulating Exogenous Shocks in Complex Supply Networks Using Modular Stochastic Petri Nets

Title data

Fridgen, Gilbert ; Stepanek, Christian ; Wolf, Thomas:
Simulating Exogenous Shocks in Complex Supply Networks Using Modular Stochastic Petri Nets.
2012
Event: 20th European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS) , June 2012 , Barcelona, Spain.
(Conference item: Conference , Paper )

Official URL: Volltext

Abstract in another language

Almost all major companies are embedded in complex, global supply networks, consisting of multiple nested supply chains, and building up a high level of complexity. Exogenous shocks on these networks (e.g. natural disasters) can directly and indirectly impact companies and even cause their entire supply network to fail. However, today it is extremely difficult for a company to predict the actual impact of an exogenous shock on its supply network. Hence, companies are not able to identify adequate counteractive measures. Therefore safeguarding measures are oftentimes insufficient or even counterproductive. This paper deals with modelling, analyzing and quantifying impacts of exogenous shocks on supply networks using Petri Nets. It provides means to simulate the vulnerability of different network constellations regarding exogenous influences. In order to evaluate the proposed method, we simulate different intensities of an exogenous shock delaying the delivery for an exemplary supply network. We thereby illustrate which results could be yielded from a real-world application. For our exemplary network we find that the marginal effect of a disruption declines with an increasing intensity of shock. Moreover, the impact of shocks can be mitigated by appropriate counteractive measures like in this example by an increased safety margin of stock.

Further data

Item Type: Conference item (Paper)
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Supply Chain, Supply Network, Petri Net, Exogenous Shock.
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration > Professorship Business Informations Systems and sustainable IT management
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration > Professorship Business Informations Systems and sustainable IT management > Professorship Business Informations Systems and sustainable IT management- Univ.-Prof. Dr. Gilbert Fridgen
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes > Fraunhofer Project Group Business and Information Systems Engineering
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes > FIM Research Center Finance & Information Management
Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics
Result of work at the UBT: No
DDC Subjects: 000 Computer Science, information, general works > 004 Computer science
300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Date Deposited: 31 Mar 2015 11:53
Last Modified: 07 May 2018 10:48
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/7786