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Demand forecasting for companies with many branches, low sales numbers per product, and non-recurring orderings

Titelangaben

Kurz, Sascha ; Rambau, Jörg:
Demand forecasting for companies with many branches, low sales numbers per product, and non-recurring orderings.
In: Macedo Mourelle, Luiza de (Hrsg.): Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications. - Los Alamitos, CA, USA : IEEE Computer Society , 2007 . - S. 196-204
ISBN 978-0-7695-2976-9

Weitere URLs

Abstract

We propose the new top-dog-index to quantify the historic deviation of the supply data of many small branches for a commodity group from sales data. On the one hand, the common parametric assumptions on the customer demand distribution in the literature could not at all be supported in our real-world data set. On the other hand, a reasonably-looking non-parametric approach to estimate the demand distribution for the different branches directly from the sales distribution could only provide us with statistically weak and unreliable estimates for the future demand. Based on real-world sales data from our industry partner we provide evidence that our top-dog-index is statistically robust. Using the top-dog-index, we propose a heuristics to improve the branch-dependent proportion between supply and demand. Our approach cannot estimate the branch-dependent demand directly. It can, however, classify the branches into a given number of clusters according to an historic oversupply or undersupply. This classification of branches can iteratively be used to adapt the branch distribution of supply and demand in the future.

Weitere Angaben

Publikationsform: Aufsatz in einem Buch
Begutachteter Beitrag: Ja
Institutionen der Universität: Fakultäten
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik > Mathematisches Institut
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik > Mathematisches Institut > Lehrstuhl Wirtschaftsmathematik
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik > Mathematisches Institut > Lehrstuhl Wirtschaftsmathematik > Lehrstuhl Wirtschaftsmathematik - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Jörg Rambau
Titel an der UBT entstanden: Ja
Themengebiete aus DDC: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
Eingestellt am: 04 Jun 2014 08:25
Letzte Änderung: 17 Jun 2021 09:04
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/746