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Sensitivity and predictive uncertainty of the ACASA model at a spruce forest site

Title data

Staudt, Katharina ; Falge, Eva ; Pyles, R. David ; Paw U, Kyaw Tha ; Foken, Thomas:
Sensitivity and predictive uncertainty of the ACASA model at a spruce forest site.
In: Biogeosciences. Vol. 7 (November 2010) Issue 11 . - pp. 3685-3705.
ISSN 1726-4189
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-3685-2010

Abstract in another language

The sensitivity and predictive uncertainty of the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA) was assessed by employing the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. ACASA is a stand-scale, multi-layer soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model that incorporates a third order closure method to simulate the turbulent exchange of energy and matter within and above the canopy. Fluxes simulated by the model were compared to sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as the net ecosystem exchange measured by an eddy-covariance system above the spruce canopy at the FLUXNET-station Waldstein-Weidenbrunnen in the Fichtelgebirge Mountains in Germany. From each of the intensive observation periods carried out within the EGER project (ExchanGE processes in mountainous Regions) in autumn 2007 and summer 2008, five days of flux measurements were selected. A large number (20000) of model runs using randomly generated parameter sets were performed and goodness of fit measures for all fluxes for each of these runs were calculated. The 10% best model runs for each flux were used for further investigation of the sensitivity of the fluxes to parameter values and to calculate uncertainty bounds.A strong sensitivity of the individual fluxes to a few parameters was observed, such as the leaf area index. However, the sensitivity analysis also revealed the equifinality of many parameters in the ACASA model for the investigated periods. The analysis of two time periods, each representing different meteorological conditions, provided an insight into the seasonal variation of parameter sensitivity. The calculated uncertainty bounds demonstrated that all fluxes were well reproduced by the ACASA model. In general, uncertainty bounds encompass measured values better when these are conditioned on the respective individual flux only and not on all three fluxes concurrently. Structural weaknesses of the ACASA model concerning the soil respiration calculations and the simulation of the latent heat flux during dry conditions were detected, with improvements suggested for each.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Additional notes: BAYCEER90678
Discussion paper: Biogeosciences Discuss., 7, 4223-4271, 2010 (doi:10.5194/bgd-7-4223-2010)
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Former Professors > Professorship Micrometeorology - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Thomas Foken
Research Institutions > Research Centres > Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research- BayCEER
Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Former Professors
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Research Centres
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 500 Science
Date Deposited: 21 Aug 2015 06:49
Last Modified: 05 Jul 2016 13:54
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/18423