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Land use change and ecosystem services in mountainous watersheds : predicting the consequences of environmental policies with cellular automata and hydrological modeling

Title data

Kim, Ilkwon ; Arnhold, Sebastian ; Ahn, Sora ; Le Bao, Quang ; Kim, Seong Joon ; Park, Soo Jin ; Koellner, Thomas:
Land use change and ecosystem services in mountainous watersheds : predicting the consequences of environmental policies with cellular automata and hydrological modeling.
In: Environmental Modelling & Software. (July 2017) . - in press.
ISSN 1364-8152
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.018

Abstract in another language

Integrated model systems that simulate land use and land cover change (LUCC) and associated changes of ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly important for supporting policies and management decisions. However, only few model frameworks exist that consider policy options as drivers of future LUCC and ES simultaneously. We present a modeling procedure that predicts policy-induced LUCC and ES through a combination of cellular automata (CA) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We employed this procedure to assess the efficiency of alternative policy instruments including direct payments and command-and-control regulations in mountain watersheds of South Korea. Our approach successfully captures spatial patterns of LUCC, hydrological processes, and the associated gains and losses in ES as well as potential negative externalities (“leakage” effects). Our modeling procedure provides an informative and robust basis for the development of decision support systems for mountain watersheds, where water provision and regulation are of particular concern.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Additional notes: BAYCEER141501
Keywords: Cellular automata; Direct payments; Fresh water supply; NetLogo; Regulation; Soil and Water Assessment Tool
Institutions of the University: Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Professorship Ecological Services
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Professorship Ecological Services > Professorship Ecological Services - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Thomas Köllner
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Research Centres
Research Institutions > Research Centres > Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research- BayCEER
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 500 Science > 550 Earth sciences, geology
Date Deposited: 05 Jul 2017 06:15
Last Modified: 08 Jan 2018 13:37
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/38266