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Metals : resources or financial assets? A multivariate cross-sectional analysis

Title data

Lutzenberger, Fabian ; Gleich, Benedikt ; Mayer, Herbert G. ; Stepanek, Christian ; Rathgeber, Andreas W.:
Metals : resources or financial assets? A multivariate cross-sectional analysis.
In: Empirical Economics. Vol. 53 (November 2017) Issue 3 . - pp. 927-958.
ISSN 1435-8921
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1162-9

Official URL: Volltext

Abstract in another language

Metals are very important resources for industrial production, but recently they have attracted more and more attention from investors. While certainly industrial producers, consumers, and financial investors do have some influence on metal price development, the role of relevant price factors is not yet quite clear. Therefore, in this paper, we examine the explanatory power of various fundamental factors and characteristics known from financial markets, specifically on the expected returns in a unique data sample of 30 metals. We apply—to our knowledge for the first time in this context—the widely accepted method of characteristic-sorted portfolios, extended by the very recent method of two-way portfolio sorts as an alternative to classical multivariate regressions. This mostly nonparametric approach, combined with portfolio aggregation, provides very robust results. Our major finding is that the financial characteristics value and momentum have a very high predictive power for monthly returns of metal portfolios. Metal-specific fundamental factors like stocks, secondary production, apparent consumption, country concentration, mine production, or reserves perform depending on the interpretation moderately well or rather poorly, regarding some economically interpretable transformations and when using multivariate twoway sorts. Hence, from the perspective of expected returns, metals are predominantly assets, while fundamental metal-specific factors still play a non-negligible role. Thus, to a much lesser extent, metals can still be regarded as resources. Overall, the combination of financial characteristics and metal-specific fundamental factors yields the best results. With these robust results, we hope to contribute to a better understanding of metal prices and their underlying factors.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Metals; Value; Momentum; Fundamentals; Cross-sectional analysis; Nonparametric
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes > FIM Research Center Finance & Information Management
Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 000 Computer Science, information, general works > 004 Computer science
300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Date Deposited: 23 May 2018 09:51
Last Modified: 23 May 2018 09:51
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/44348