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A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment

Title data

Afflerbach, Patrick ; van Dun, Christopher ; Gimpel, Henner ; Parak, Dominik ; Seyfried, Johannes:
A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment.
In: Business & Information Systems Engineering. (2020) .
ISSN 1867-0202

Official URL: Volltext

Abstract in another language

Analytical and empirical research has shown that the aggregation of multiple independent expert judgments significantly improves the quality of forecasts as compared to individual expert forecasts. This “wisdom of crowds” (WOC) has recently sparked substantial research interest. However, previous studies on the strengths and weaknesses of aggregation models have been limited by restricted empirical data and analytical complexity. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the existing knowledge of WOC and different aggregation models, we designed and implemented a simulation model to emulate WOC scenarios with a wide range of parameters. The model has been thoroughly evaluated: We validated its assumptions against propositions derived from relevant literature, built a computational representation, and showed its applicability in a variety of experimental scenarios to validate its behavior. Experimental scenarios include the investigation of aggregation model behavior on a detailed level, the assessment of aggregation model performance, and the exploration of previously undiscovered hypotheses on WOC. The simulation model helps expand the understanding of WOC in fields where previous research was restricted. Additionally, it gives directions for further developing aggregation models, and contributes to a general understanding of the WOC phenomenon.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: simulation; forecasting; expert judgment; expert aggregation; wisdom of crowds
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration > Chair Information Systems and Value-Based Business Process Management
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration > Chair Information Systems and Value-Based Business Process Management > Chair Information Systems and Value-Based Business Process Management - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Maximilian Röglinger
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes > Fraunhofer Project Group Business and Information Systems Engineering
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes > FIM Research Center Finance & Information Management
Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 000 Computer Science, information, general works > 004 Computer science
300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Date Deposited: 25 Jun 2020 07:37
Last Modified: 15 Sep 2020 08:10
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/55566