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How likely are macroeconomic crises in the CIS?

Title data

Bauer, Christian ; Herz, Bernhard ; Karb, Volker:
How likely are macroeconomic crises in the CIS?
In: Research in International Business and Finance. Vol. 20 (2006) Issue 2 . - pp. 227-238.
ISSN 0275-5319
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2005.09.008

Abstract in another language

Building on a benchmark sample of 78 middle-income countries and based on generalized linear model (glm) estimations, we assess the risk of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine to experience currency and/or debt crises as other emerging market economies have repeatedly done before. We find that as a result of their current fiscal and monetary situation, these countries face a low but not negligible risk of currency crises. Furthermore, there is also a rather low but not negligible risk of debt crises in all four countries. The risk of twin currency and debt crises is virtually zero in all four countries. In addition to these probability estimations based on the countries’ current situation, our analysis also shows that it is essential for all four countries to avoid worsening economic fundamentals as especially an increase in their debt to GDP ratios would very rapidly increase the risk of debt and/or twin crises to serious levels in all countries.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Currency crises; Debt crises; CIS
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Economics > Chair Economics I > Chair Economics I - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Bernhard Herz
Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Economics
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Economics > Chair Economics I
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Date Deposited: 02 Apr 2015 06:35
Last Modified: 02 Apr 2015 06:35
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/9778