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Ottoni, Marianna ; Helbig, Christoph ; Habib, Komal:
Aspiration versus Capacity : The case of critical raw materials for electromobility in Canada.
In: Resources Policy.
Bd. 119
(2026)
.
- 105962.
ISSN 1873-7641
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105962
Abstract
The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is reshaping critical raw material (CRM) demand and raising questions about whether national industrial systems can support policy-driven electrification targets. This study assesses the alignment between Canada's electromobility aspiration and its current EV battery value chain capacity for six CRMs: graphite, cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese, and nickel. Using a scenario-based modelling framework, three EV adoption trajectories were developed to 2050: Government of Canada (GoC), Moderate-A, and Moderate-B. Projected EV sales were combined with battery-chemistry assumptions to estimate CRM demand and compared with Canada's current capacity across upstream, midstream, downstream, and post-stream stages. Capacity was assessed through five dimensions: geological endowment, technical-industrial capability, infrastructure and scale, circularity, and systemic governance. Results show that graphite, copper, and nickel dominate cumulative material demand, accounting for over 80% of total requirements by 2050. Under the GoC scenario, graphite demand reaches 3350 kt and copper demand 3203 kt, while cobalt demand exceeds known Canadian reserves. Although copper and nickel represent relative strengths, lithium, graphite, and manganese reveal more pronounced vulnerabilities. The main constraint is not resource availability alone, but the structural misalignment between rapid electrification targets and uneven system capacity, especially limited midstream refining, delayed infrastructure scale-up, emerging recycling systems, and fragmented governance coordination. The findings suggest that Canada's transition challenge is not achieving full self-sufficiency, but strategically strengthening domestic midstream, downstream, and circular capacities to reduce external dependence, capture value, and improve long-term supply chain resilience.
Weitere Angaben
| Publikationsform: | Artikel in einer Zeitschrift |
|---|---|
| Begutachteter Beitrag: | Ja |
| Keywords: | EV batteries; Value chain; Supply; Demand; Capacity; Critical minerals |
| Institutionen der Universität: | Fakultäten > Fakultät für Ingenieurwissenschaften > Lehrstuhl Ökologische Ressourcentechnologie > Lehrstuhl Ökologische Ressourcentechnologie - Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christoph Helbig |
| Titel an der UBT entstanden: | Ja |
| Themengebiete aus DDC: | 600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 620 Ingenieurwissenschaften |
| Eingestellt am: | 10 Jun 2026 12:49 |
| Letzte Änderung: | 10 Jun 2026 12:49 |
| URI: | https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/97919 |