The Impact of Energy-Economical Behavior on Long-Term Energetic Retrofitting Roadmaps : A Vine Copula Quantile Regression Approach

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Töppel, Jannick ; Tränkler, Timm ; Wiethe, Christian:
The Impact of Energy-Economical Behavior on Long-Term Energetic Retrofitting Roadmaps : A Vine Copula Quantile Regression Approach.
In: Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE). - Västerås, Sweden , 2019

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Energy efficiency is at the core of multiple national climate protection plans. Consequently, roadmaps for energy efficiency measures aim to undercut certain energy consumption limits for residential one- and two-family households. However, these roadmaps are often based only on physical building parameters, neglecting the impact of occupant behavior. In this paper, we apply vine copula quantile regression to derive residential household specific conclusions on optimal long-term energetic retrofitting roadmaps under consideration of energy-economical behavior of the occupants. Our analysis shows that these behavioral factors highly impact the recommendation of certain energetic retrofitting roadmaps. Compared to generic approaches this leads to average savings of 8.2% and up to 32.8% in exceptional circumstances. We conclude that future policy decisions on energy efficiency measures for residential buildings should consider behavioral factors to lever their effects.