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Punctuality Predictions in Public Transportation : Quantifying the Effect of External Factors

Title data

Meyer-Hollatz, Tim ; Schwarz, Nina ; Werner, Tim:
Punctuality Predictions in Public Transportation : Quantifying the Effect of External Factors.
In: Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI). - Paderborn, Germany , 2023

Official URL: Volltext

Project information

Project title:
Project's official title
Project's id
Projektgruppe WI Künstliche Intelligenz
No information
Projektgruppe WI Nachhaltiges Energiemanagement & Mobilität
No information

Project financing: Andere

Abstract in another language

Increasing availability of large-scale datasets for automatic vehicle location (AVL) in public transportation (PT) encouraged researchers to investigate data-driven punctuality prediction models (PPMs). PPMs promise to accelerate the mobility transition through more accurate prediction delays, increased customer service levels, and more efficient and forward-looking planning by mobility providers. While several PPMs show promising results for buses and long-distance trains, a comprehensive study on external factors' effect on tram services is missing. Therefore, we implement four machine learning (ML) models to predict departure delays and elaborate on the performance increase by adding real-world weather and holiday data for three consecutive years. For our best model (XGBoost) the average MAE performance increased by 17.33 % compared to the average model performance when only trained on AVL data enriched by timetable characteristics. The results provide strong evidence that adding information-bearing features improve the forecast quality of PPMs.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a book
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Punctuality Prediction; Public transportation; Machine Learning; Automatic Vehicle Location
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration
Faculties > Faculty of Law, Business and Economics > Department of Business Administration > Chair Business Administration XVII - Information Systems and Value-Based Business Process Management
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes > Branch Business and Information Systems Engineering of Fraunhofer FIT
Research Institutions > Affiliated Institutes > FIM Research Center for Information Management
Result of work at the UBT: No
DDC Subjects: 000 Computer Science, information, general works > 004 Computer science
300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Date Deposited: 02 Nov 2023 07:54
Last Modified: 02 Nov 2023 12:04
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/87440