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A Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Approach for Regional Climate Model Selection and Future Climate Assessment in the Mono River Basin, Benin and Togo

Title data

Hounguè, Nina Rholan ; Almoradie, Adrian Delos Santos ; Evers, Mariele:
A Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Approach for Regional Climate Model Selection and Future Climate Assessment in the Mono River Basin, Benin and Togo.
In: Atmosphere. Vol. 13 (2022) Issue 9 . - 1471.
ISSN 2073-4433

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Project financing: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung

Abstract in another language

Regional climate models (RCMs) are key in the current context of global warming, and they are increasingly used to support decision-making and to identify adaptation measures in response to climate change. However, considering the wide range of available RCMs, it is important to identify the most suitable ones prior to climate impact studies, especially at small scales like catchments. In this study, a multicriteria decision analysis approach, namely the technique for order preferences by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) was applied to select the best performing RCMs in the Mono River Basin of Benin and Togo (West Africa). The TOPSIS method was used to systematically rank 15 RCMs accessed from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) database. Six RCMs were finally selected and averaged into an ensemble to assess the future climate in the Mono River Basin until 2070 compared to the period 1966–2015. Two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were considered. The results show that under both climate change scenarios, the annual temperature has an increasing trend during the period 1966–2070, whereas annual rainfall for the next 50 years presents high variability and no statistically significant trend. Furthermore, seasonal cycles of rainfall are expected to change in the different parts of the catchment with delayed onset of rainfall, longer dry seasons, and rainfall intensification. In response to the projected changes, impact studies and risk assessments need to be carried out to evaluate potential implications for human security in the Mono River Basin and to provide adequate adaptation measures.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: multicriteria decision analysis; TOPSIS; climate change; RCP scenarios; Mono River Basin; Benin; Togo
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Professor Climatology > Professor Climatology - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Cyrus Samimi
Research Institutions > Central research institutes > Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research- BayCEER
Result of work at the UBT: No
DDC Subjects: 500 Science > 500 Natural sciences
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2024 09:13
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2024 11:41