Sixty years of plant community change in Europe indicate a shift toward nutrient-richer and denser vegetation

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Midolo, Gabriele ; Clark, Adam Thomas ; Chytrý, Milan ; Essl, Franz ; Dullinger, Stefan ; Jandt, Ute ; Bruelheide, Helge ; Dengler, Jürgen ; Axmanová, Irena ; Aćić, Svetlana ; Argagnon, Olivier ; Biurrun, Idoia ; Bonari, Gianmaria ; Chiarucci, Alessandro ; Ćušterevska, Renata ; De Frenne, Pieter ; De Sanctis, Michele ; Divíšek, Jan ; Doležal, Jiří ; Dziuba, Tetiana ; Ejrnæs, Rasmus ; Garbolino, Emmanuel ; Jentsch, Anke ; Jiménez-Alfaro, Borja ; Lenoir, Jonathan ; Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold ; Napoleone, Francesca ; Rumpf, Sabine B. ; Svenning, Jens-Christian ; Swacha, Grzegorz ; Tatarenko, Irina ; Večeřa, Martin ; Vynokurov, Denys ; Keil, Petr:
Sixty years of plant community change in Europe indicate a shift toward nutrient-richer and denser vegetation.
In: Science Advances. Bd. 12 (2026) Heft 15 . - eaeb2493.
ISSN 2375-2548
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb2493

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Abstract

Anthropogenic impacts are reshaping plant biodiversity patterns, yet how community-composition shifts track environmental change at large spatial and temporal scales remains unclear. Here, we quantified trends in community-mean plant ecological indicator values (light, temperature, soil moisture, soil nitrogen, and soil reaction) across European vegetation between 1960 and 2020. We used spatiotemporal interpolation based on 644,524 plots and analyzed 18,345 time series encompassing diverse habitats. We found a clear shift in community composition over the past six decades with a steep increase in nitrogen-demanding species across all main habitat types, accompanied by a moderate increase in shade-tolerant species. Forest communities shifted toward species associated with higher soil pH, while wetland communities showed a decline in moisture-dependent species over time. Conversely, temperature indicator values were largely stable, except for recent thermophilization in alpine habitats. Our results indicate a widespread trend toward denser vegetation driven by eutrophication and changes in management practices. Bioindication reveals a 60-year shift toward denser, more productive vegetation, but a weak thermophilization signal.