Whether it's weather or climate : Temperature and individual deprivation in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Baako-Amponsah, Josephine ; Stadelmann, David ; Wild, Frederik:
Whether it's weather or climate : Temperature and individual deprivation in Sub-Saharan Africa.
In: Energy Economics. Bd. 158 (2026) . - 109363.
ISSN 0140-9883
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109363

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Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is widely regarded as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, yet large-scale evidence linking temperature exposure to individual-level welfare remains fragmented. In this paper, we provide a unified assessment of temperature exposure across multiple time horizons by linking daily, monthly, yearly, and long-run average temperature data to 168,585 geo-referenced households in 28 African countries. Our results consistently reveal a statistically robust negative association between higher temperatures and individual living standards, whether arising from short-term weather shocks or long-run climatic conditions. Quantitatively, these effects are modest, particularly once individual characteristics and local geographic conditions are accounted for. Notably, we find no substantive differences between impacts of short-term temperature and long-run climatic effects, suggesting limited past adaptation to sustained heat exposure. The fact that temperature-related welfare losses are differentially stronger among rural and agriculturally engaged households further highlights the persistent vulnerability of climate-sensitive livelihoods. Crucially, however, local infrastructural endowments emerge as an important moderating factor, significantly weakening the association between temperature exposure and individual-level deprivation. This finding points to scope for adaptation through investments in basic infrastructure and service provision.