Titelangaben
Contreras, Sebastian ; Dehning, Jonas ; Loidolt, Matthias ; Zierenberg, Johannes ; Spitzner, F. Paul ; Urrea-Quintero, Jorge H. ; Mohr, Sebastian B. ; Wilczek, Michael ; Wibral, Michael ; Priesemann, Viola:
The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate.
In: Nature Communications.
Bd. 12
(2021)
.
- No. 378.
ISSN 2041-1723
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20699-8
Abstract
Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain the viral spread. For any TTI strategy, however, a major challenge arises from pre- and asymptomatic transmission as well as TTI-avoiders, which contribute to hidden, unnoticed infection chains. In our semi-analytical model, we identified two distinct tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spreading: one, at which the behavior-driven reproduction number of the hidden infections becomes too large to be compensated by the available TTI capabilities, and one at which the number of new infections starts to exceed the tracing capacity, causing a self-accelerating spread. We investigated how these tipping points depend on realistic limitations like limited cooperativity, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation, finding that TTI is likely not sufficient to contain the natural spread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, complementary measures like reduced physical contacts and improved hygiene probably remain necessary.
Weitere Angaben
Publikationsform: | Artikel in einer Zeitschrift |
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Begutachteter Beitrag: | Ja |
Institutionen der Universität: | Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik > Physikalisches Institut > Lehrstuhl Theoretische Physik I > Lehrstuhl für Theoretische Physik I - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Michael Wilczek Profilfelder > Advanced Fields > Nichtlineare Dynamik Fakultäten Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik > Physikalisches Institut Fakultäten > Fakultät für Mathematik, Physik und Informatik > Physikalisches Institut > Lehrstuhl Theoretische Physik I Profilfelder Profilfelder > Advanced Fields |
Titel an der UBT entstanden: | Nein |
Themengebiete aus DDC: | 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 530 Physik |
Eingestellt am: | 18 Feb 2022 11:41 |
Letzte Änderung: | 18 Feb 2022 11:41 |
URI: | https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/67606 |