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Klesse, Stefan ; Peters, Richard L. ; Alfaro‐Sánchez, Raquel ; Badeau, Vincent ; Baittinger, Claudia ; Battipaglia, Giovanna ; Bert, Didier ; Biondi, Franco ; Bosela, Michal ; Budeanu, Marius ; Čada, Vojtěch ; Camarero, J. Julio ; Cavin, Liam ; Claessens, Hugues ; Cretan, Ana‐Maria ; Čufar, Katarina ; de Luis, Martin ; Dorado‐Liñán, Isabel ; Dulamsuren, Choimaa ; Espelta, Josep Maria ; Garamszegi, Balazs ; Grabner, Michael ; Gricar, Jozica ; Hacket‐Pain, Andrew ; Hansen, Jon Kehlet ; Hartl, Claudia ; Hevia, Andrea ; Hobi, Martina ; Janda, Pavel ; Jump, Alistair S. ; Kašpar, Jakub ; Kazimirović, Marko ; Keren, Srdjan ; Kreyling, Juergen ; Land, Alexander ; Latte, Nicolas ; Lebourgeois, François ; Leuschner, Christoph ; Lévesque, Mathieu ; Longares, Luis A. ; del Castillo, Edurne Martinez ; Menzel, Annette ; Merela, Maks ; Mikoláš, Martin ; Motta, Renzo ; Muffler, Lena ; Neycken, Anna ; Nola, Paola ; Panayotov, Momchil ; Petritan, Any Mary ; Petritan, Ion Catalin ; Popa, Ionel ; Prislan, Peter ; Levanič, Tom ; Roibu, Catalin‐Constantin ; Rubio‐Cuadrado, Álvaro ; Sánchez‐Salguero, Raúl ; Šamonil, Pavel ; Stajić, Branko ; Svoboda, Miroslav ; Tognetti, Roberto ; Toromani, Elvin ; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr ; van der Maaten, Ernst ; van der Maaten‐Theunissen, Marieke ; Vannoppen, Astrid ; Vašíčková, Ivana ; von Arx, Georg ; Wilmking, Martin ; Weigel, Robert ; Zlatanov, Tzvetan ; Zang, Christian ; Buras, Allan:
No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation.
In: Global Change Biology.
Bd. 30
(2024)
Heft 10
.
- e17546.
ISSN 1365-2486
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17546
Abstract
With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.
Weitere Angaben
| Publikationsform: | Artikel in einer Zeitschrift |
|---|---|
| Begutachteter Beitrag: | Ja |
| Keywords: | climate change; drought; european beech; Fagus sylvatica; tree rings; growth projection; leading edge; trailing edge |
| Institutionen der Universität: | Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften > Fachgruppe Biologie Forschungseinrichtungen > Zentrale wissenschaftliche Einrichtungen > Bayreuther Zentrum für Ökologie und Umweltforschung - BayCEER Serviceeinrichtungen > Ökologisch-Botanischer Garten |
| Titel an der UBT entstanden: | Ja |
| Themengebiete aus DDC: | 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 500 Naturwissenschaften 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 580 Pflanzen (Botanik) |
| Eingestellt am: | 15 Nov 2024 06:15 |
| Letzte Änderung: | 15 Nov 2024 06:15 |
| URI: | https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/91105 |