Optimal state estimation : Turnpike analysis and performance results

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Schiller, Julian D. ; Grüne, Lars ; Müller, Matthias A.:
Optimal state estimation : Turnpike analysis and performance results.
In: Proceedings of the 2025 European Control Conference (ECC 2025). - Piscataway, NJ : IEEE , 2025 . - pp. 351-357
ISBN 978-3-907144-12-1
DOI: https://doi.org/10.23919/ECC65951.2025.11186977

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In this paper, we introduce turnpike arguments in the context of optimal state estimation. In particular, we show that the optimal solution of the state estimation problem involving all available past data serves as turnpike for the solutions of truncated problems involving only a subset of the data. We mathematically formalize this phenomenon and derive a sufficient condition that relies on a decaying sensitivity property of the underlying nonlinear program. As second contribution, we show how a specific turnpike property can be used to establish performance guarantees when approximating the optimal solution of the full problem by a sequence of trun-cated problems, and we show that the resulting performance (both averaged and non-averaged) is approximately optimal with error terms that can be made arbitrarily small by an appropriate choice of the horizon length. In addition, we discuss interesting implications of these results for the practically relevant case of moving horizon estimation and illustrate our results with a numerical example.