Titlebar

Export bibliographic data
Literature by the same author
plus on the publication server
plus at Google Scholar

 

Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany

Title data

Fischer, Dominik ; Thomas, Stephanie ; Beierkuhnlein, Carl:
Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany.
In: Geospatial Health. Vol. 5 (2010) Issue 1 . - pp. 59-69.
ISSN 1970-7096
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2010.187

Abstract in another language

Climate change is expected to manifest in the shift of organisms to regions where they were not present inthe past, potentially entailing previously unseen biological risks. However, studies evaluating these future trends arescarce. Here, an important group of vectors (sandflies) and the pathogen transmitted (Leishmania infantum complex)causing the infectious disease visceral leishmaniasis is investigated, focussing on potential establishment in Germanyduring the 21st century. As the most important habitat factor, temperature requirements of pathogen and vector werederived from the literature and compared with recent climate records - provided by worldclim - and climate change scenarios.Climate data from the Regional Climate Model REMO were obtained and averaged over the time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Projected temperature changes (based on the A1B and A2 scenarios) were correlatedwith the constraints of vector and pathogen. Simulated potentially suitable habitat areas for vector and pathogenwere merged to generate a temperature-derived risk map of visceral leishmaniasis. Temperature conditions seem tobecome suitable for the vector across large swaths of Germany. Nevertheless, temperature constraints for the pathogenmay defer the establishment of the parasitic disease, particularly during the first half of the 21st century. Long-lastingepidemics of visceral leishmaniasis are therefore not expected in Germany during the next few decades, although duringextremely warm years an increase in autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis may occur. The southwest (Upper RhineValley) and west (Cologne Bight) of Germany are identified as risk areas. The time of potential establishment and correspondingrise in biological risk varies between scenarios, due to differences in the predicted rate of temperature increase.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Additional notes: BAYCEER84215
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Chair Biogeography
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Chair Biogeography > Chair Biogeography - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein
Research Institutions > Research Centres > Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research- BayCEER
Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Research Centres
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 500 Science
Date Deposited: 12 May 2015 06:12
Last Modified: 12 May 2015 06:12
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/13411