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Fischer, Dominik ; Thomas, Stephanie ; Beierkuhnlein, Carl:
Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany.
In: Geospatial Health.
Bd. 5
(2010)
Heft 1
.
- S. 59-69.
ISSN 1970-7096
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2010.187
Abstract
Climate change is expected to manifest in the shift of organisms to regions where they were not present inthe past, potentially entailing previously unseen biological risks. However, studies evaluating these future trends arescarce. Here, an important group of vectors (sandflies) and the pathogen transmitted (Leishmania infantum complex)causing the infectious disease visceral leishmaniasis is investigated, focussing on potential establishment in Germanyduring the 21st century. As the most important habitat factor, temperature requirements of pathogen and vector werederived from the literature and compared with recent climate records - provided by worldclim - and climate change scenarios.Climate data from the Regional Climate Model REMO were obtained and averaged over the time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Projected temperature changes (based on the A1B and A2 scenarios) were correlatedwith the constraints of vector and pathogen. Simulated potentially suitable habitat areas for vector and pathogenwere merged to generate a temperature-derived risk map of visceral leishmaniasis. Temperature conditions seem tobecome suitable for the vector across large swaths of Germany. Nevertheless, temperature constraints for the pathogenmay defer the establishment of the parasitic disease, particularly during the first half of the 21st century. Long-lastingepidemics of visceral leishmaniasis are therefore not expected in Germany during the next few decades, although duringextremely warm years an increase in autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis may occur. The southwest (Upper RhineValley) and west (Cologne Bight) of Germany are identified as risk areas. The time of potential establishment and correspondingrise in biological risk varies between scenarios, due to differences in the predicted rate of temperature increase.