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Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread

Titelangaben

Samy, Abdallah M. ; Thomas, Stephanie ; Abd El Wahed, Ahmed ; Cohoon, Kevin P. ; Peterson, Andrew Townsend:
Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread.
In: Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Bd. 111 (2016) Heft 9 . - S. 559-560.
ISSN 1678-8060
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0074-02760160149

Abstract

The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV). Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector mosquito distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding (1) the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, (2) the global potential for spread of ZIKV, and (3) drivers of ZIKV transmission. Our analysis of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally identified areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not for others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be better prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.

Weitere Angaben

Publikationsform: Artikel in einer Zeitschrift
Begutachteter Beitrag: Ja
Zusätzliche Informationen: BAYCEER137946
Keywords: Zika virus; Global distribution; Risk; Aedes; Brazil; Climate; Socioeconomic; Accessibility
Institutionen der Universität: Forschungseinrichtungen
Forschungseinrichtungen > Forschungszentren
Forschungseinrichtungen > Forschungszentren > Bayreuther Zentrum für Ökologie und Umweltforschung - BayCEER
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften > Fachgruppe Geowissenschaften > Lehrstuhl Biogeographie
Fakultäten
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften > Fachgruppe Geowissenschaften
Titel an der UBT entstanden: Ja
Themengebiete aus DDC: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
Eingestellt am: 18 Jan 2018 10:48
Letzte Änderung: 18 Jan 2018 10:48
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/41394