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Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread

Title data

Samy, Abdallah M. ; Thomas, Stephanie ; Abd El Wahed, Ahmed ; Cohoon, Kevin P. ; Peterson, Andrew Townsend:
Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread.
In: Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Vol. 111 (2016) Issue 9 . - pp. 559-560.
ISSN 1678-8060
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0074-02760160149

Abstract in another language

The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV). Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector mosquito distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding (1) the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, (2) the global potential for spread of ZIKV, and (3) drivers of ZIKV transmission. Our analysis of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally identified areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not for others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be better prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Additional notes: BAYCEER137946
Keywords: Zika virus; Global distribution; Risk; Aedes; Brazil; Climate; Socioeconomic; Accessibility
Institutions of the University: Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Research Centres
Research Institutions > Research Centres > Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research- BayCEER
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Chair Biogeography
Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 500 Science
Date Deposited: 18 Jan 2018 10:48
Last Modified: 18 Jan 2018 10:48
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/41394