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Samy, Abdallah M. ; Thomas, Stephanie ; Abd El Wahed, Ahmed ; Cohoon, Kevin P. ; Peterson, Andrew Townsend:
Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread.
In: Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz.
Bd. 111
(2016)
Heft 9
.
- S. 559-560.
ISSN 1678-8060
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0074-02760160149
Abstract
The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV). Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector mosquito distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding (1) the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, (2) the global potential for spread of ZIKV, and (3) drivers of ZIKV transmission. Our analysis of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally identified areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not for others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be better prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.
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| Publikationsform: | Artikel in einer Zeitschrift |
|---|---|
| Begutachteter Beitrag: | Ja |
| Zusätzliche Informationen: | BAYCEER137946 |
| Keywords: | Zika virus; Global distribution; Risk; Aedes; Brazil; Climate; Socioeconomic; Accessibility |
| Institutionen der Universität: | Forschungseinrichtungen Forschungseinrichtungen > Forschungszentren Forschungseinrichtungen > Forschungszentren > Bayreuther Zentrum für Ökologie und Umweltforschung - BayCEER Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften > Fachgruppe Geowissenschaften > Lehrstuhl Biogeographie Fakultäten Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften > Fachgruppe Geowissenschaften |
| Titel an der UBT entstanden: | Ja |
| Themengebiete aus DDC: | 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik |
| Eingestellt am: | 18 Jan 2018 10:48 |
| Letzte Änderung: | 18 Jan 2018 10:48 |
| URI: | https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/41394 |