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The Dual Nature of Chaos and Order in the Atmosphere

Title data

Shen, Bo-Wen ; Pielke Sr., Roger ; Zeng, Xubin ; Cui, Jialin ; Faghih-Naini, Sara ; Paxson, Wei ; Kesarkar, Amit ; Zeng, Xiping ; Atlas, Robert:
The Dual Nature of Chaos and Order in the Atmosphere.
In: Atmosphere. Vol. 13 (2022) Issue 11 . - No. 1892.
ISSN 2073-4433
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111892

Abstract in another language

In the past, the Lorenz 1963 and 1969 models have been applied for revealing the chaotic nature of weather and climate and for estimating the atmospheric predictability limit. Recently, an in-depth analysis of classical Lorenz 1963 models and newly developed, generalized Lorenz models suggested a revised view that “the entirety of weather possesses a dual nature of chaos and order with distinct predictability”, in contrast to the conventional view of “weather is chaotic”. The distinct predictability associated with attractor coexistence suggests limited predictability for chaotic solutions and unlimited predictability (or up to their lifetime) for non-chaotic solutions. Such a view is also supported by a recent analysis of the Lorenz 1969 model that is capable of producing both unstable and stable solutions. While the alternative appearance of two kinds of attractor coexistence was previously illustrated, in this study, multistability (for attractor coexistence) and monostability (for single type solutions) are further discussed using kayaking and skiing as an analogy. Using a slowly varying, periodic heating parameter, we additionally emphasize the predictable nature of recurrence for slowly varying solutions and a less predictable (or unpredictable) nature for the onset for emerging solutions (defined as the exact timing for the transition from a chaotic solution to a non-chaotic limit cycle type solution). As a result, we refined the revised view outlined above to: “The atmosphere possesses chaos and order; it includes, as examples, emerging organized systems (such as tornadoes) and time varying forcing from recurrent seasons”. In addition to diurnal and annual cycles, examples of non-chaotic weather systems, as previously documented, are provided to support the revised view.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: dual nature; chaos; generalized Lorenz model; predictability; multistability
Institutions of the University: Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Mathematics, Physics und Computer Science
Faculties > Faculty of Mathematics, Physics und Computer Science > Department of Mathematics
Faculties > Faculty of Mathematics, Physics und Computer Science > Department of Mathematics > Chair Scientific Computing
Faculties > Faculty of Mathematics, Physics und Computer Science > Department of Mathematics > Professor Numerics of Partial Differential Equations
Faculties > Faculty of Mathematics, Physics und Computer Science > Department of Mathematics > Professor Numerics of Partial Differential Equations > Professor Numerics of Partial Differential Equations - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Vadym Aizinger
Research Institutions > Research Centres > Forschungszentrum für Modellbildung und Simulation (MODUS)
Research Institutions > Research Centres > Forschungszentrum für Wissenschaftliches Rechnen an der Universität Bayreuth - HPC-Forschungszentrum
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Research Centres
Result of work at the UBT: No
DDC Subjects: 000 Computer Science, information, general works
000 Computer Science, information, general works > 004 Computer science
500 Science
500 Science > 510 Mathematics
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences, geology
600 Technology, medicine, applied sciences
600 Technology, medicine, applied sciences > 600 Technology
Date Deposited: 15 Nov 2022 06:56
Last Modified: 15 Nov 2022 06:56
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/72773