bei Google ScholarTitelangaben
Fischer, Dominik ; Thomas, Stephanie ; Niemitz, Franziska ; Reineking, Björn ; Beierkuhnlein, Carl:
Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions.
In: Global and Planetary Change.
Bd. 78
(2011)
Heft 1-2
.
- S. 54-64.
ISSN 0921-8181
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.05.008
Abstract
During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around theglobe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distributionand the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve themost realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four differentmodelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs.statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range).First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statisticallyselected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selectedwith expert knowledge fromthe literature.Nativemodels show high model performance (AUC: 0.91–0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the Europeandistributionwell (AUC: 0.70–0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however,were able toidentify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89–0.91).In a second step, themodelled bioclimatic envelope of the global rangewas projected to future climatic conditionsin Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three timeperiods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate thatclimatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictuswill increase inwestern and central Europe alreadyin 2011–2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitableareas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge basedmodel. Our projections appear unaffectedby non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis.The generated risk maps can aid in identifying suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus and hence support monitoringand control activities to avoid disease vector establishment.