at Google ScholarTitle data
Preuk, Niels ; Romero-Mujalli, Daniel ; Zurell, Damaris ; Steinbauer, Manuel ; Kreyling, Jürgen:
Randomising spatial patterns supports the integration of intraspecific variation in ecological niche models.
In: Ecography.
(2025)
Issue 2
.
- e07289.
ISSN 1600-0587
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07289
Abstract in another language
Ecological niche models (ENMs) are an essential modelling technique in biodiversity prediction and conservation and are frequently used to forecast species responses to global changes. Classic species-level models may show limitations as they assume species homogeneity, neglecting intraspecific variation. Composite ENMs allow the integration of intraspecific variation by combining intraspecific-level ENMs, capturing individual environmental responses over the species' geographic range. While recent studies suggest that accounting for intraspecific variation improves model predictions, we currently lack methods to test the significance of the improvement. Here, we propose a null model approach that randomises observed intraspecific structures as an appropriate baseline for comparison. We illustrate this approach by comparing predictive performance of a species-level ENM to composite ENMs for European beech Fagus sylvatica. To investigate the influence of spatial lineage structure, we tested all models against the same withheld data to allow comparison across models based on five common performance metrics. We found that the species-level ENM expressed higher overall performance (i.e. AUC, TSS, and Boyce index) and specificity (ability to predict absences), while the composite ENMs achieved higher sensitivity (ability to predict presences). In line with this, the composite ENMs also showed increased sensitivity and decreased specificity compared to the null models that randomised lineage structure. We showed that the assessment of model performance strongly varies based on the used measures, emphasising a careful investigation of multiple measures for evaluation. The application of null models allowed us to disentangle the effect of observed patterns of intraspecific variation in ENMs. Further, we highlight the validation and use of well-founded subgroups for modelling. Although intraspecific variation improves the prediction of occurrences of European beech, it did not fully outcompete the classic species-level model and should be used with care and rather to improve understanding and to supplement, not replace, species-level models.
Further data
| Item Type: | Article in a journal |
|---|---|
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Institutions of the University: | Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Department of Sport Science > Chair Sport Ecology Profile Fields > Advanced Fields > Ecology and the Environmental Sciences Research Institutions > Central research institutes > Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research- BayCEER |
| Result of work at the UBT: | Yes |
| DDC Subjects: | 500 Science > 500 Natural sciences 500 Science > 570 Life sciences, biology 500 Science > 580 Plants (Botany) |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Feb 2025 08:28 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Feb 2025 08:28 |
| URI: | https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/92363 |