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Mosquito-Borne Diseases : Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts

Title data

Tjaden, Nils ; Caminade, Cyril ; Beierkuhnlein, Carl ; Thomas, Stephanie:
Mosquito-Borne Diseases : Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts.
In: Trends in Parasitology. Vol. 34 (2018) Issue 3 . - pp. 227-245.
ISSN 1471-4922
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pt.2017.11.006

Abstract in another language

Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.HighlightsThe use of ensembles of different climate models for future projections, as well as multiple different mechanistic or correlative disease models per study, is increasing.Communicating uncertainties related to disease models, different climate models, and emission and population pathways to end users is becoming a common thing to do.Most models tend to project an increased risk for vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission at high latitudes and elevations during the upcoming century.While mechanistic models typically cover the whole chain of infection by default, most environmental niche models (ENMs) still focus on vector distributions alone; they are increasingly applied to whole disease systems as well.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Refereed: Yes
Additional notes: BAYCEER144548
Institutions of the University: Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Chair Biogeography
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Chair Biogeography > Chair Biogeography - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein
Faculties > Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences > Department of Earth Sciences > Junior Professorship Biogeographical Modelling
Profile Fields
Profile Fields > Advanced Fields
Profile Fields > Advanced Fields > Nonlinear Dynamics
Research Institutions > Research Centres > Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research- BayCEER
Research Institutions
Research Institutions > Research Centres
Result of work at the UBT: Yes
DDC Subjects: 500 Science > 550 Earth sciences, geology
Date Deposited: 29 Jan 2018 12:15
Last Modified: 28 Mar 2019 08:11
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/42036