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Mosquito-Borne Diseases : Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts

Titelangaben

Tjaden, Nils ; Caminade, Cyril ; Beierkuhnlein, Carl ; Thomas, Stephanie:
Mosquito-Borne Diseases : Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts.
In: Trends in Parasitology. Bd. 34 (2018) Heft 3 . - S. 227-245.
ISSN 1471-4922
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pt.2017.11.006

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.HighlightsThe use of ensembles of different climate models for future projections, as well as multiple different mechanistic or correlative disease models per study, is increasing.Communicating uncertainties related to disease models, different climate models, and emission and population pathways to end users is becoming a common thing to do.Most models tend to project an increased risk for vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission at high latitudes and elevations during the upcoming century.While mechanistic models typically cover the whole chain of infection by default, most environmental niche models (ENMs) still focus on vector distributions alone; they are increasingly applied to whole disease systems as well.

Weitere Angaben

Publikationsform: Artikel in einer Zeitschrift
Begutachteter Beitrag: Ja
Zusätzliche Informationen: BAYCEER144548
Institutionen der Universität: Fakultäten
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften > Fachgruppe Geowissenschaften
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften > Fachgruppe Geowissenschaften > Lehrstuhl Biogeographie
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften > Fachgruppe Geowissenschaften > Lehrstuhl Biogeographie > Lehrstuhl Biogeographie - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein
Fakultäten > Fakultät für Biologie, Chemie und Geowissenschaften > Fachgruppe Geowissenschaften > Juniorprofessur Biogeographische Modellierung
Profilfelder
Profilfelder > Advanced Fields
Profilfelder > Advanced Fields > Nichtlineare Dynamik
Forschungseinrichtungen > Forschungszentren > Bayreuther Zentrum für Ökologie und Umweltforschung - BayCEER
Forschungseinrichtungen
Forschungseinrichtungen > Forschungszentren
Titel an der UBT entstanden: Ja
Themengebiete aus DDC: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie
Eingestellt am: 29 Jan 2018 12:15
Letzte Änderung: 28 Mär 2019 08:11
URI: https://eref.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/42036