Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales

Titelangaben

Fastovich, David ; Meyers, Stephen R. ; Saupe, Erin E. ; Williams, John W. ; Dornelas, Maria ; Dowding, Elizabeth M. ; Finnegan, Seth ; Huang, Huai-Hsuan M. ; Jonkers, Lukas ; Kiessling, Wolfgang ; Kocsis, Ádám T. ; Li, Qijian ; Liow, Lee Hsiang ; Na, Lin ; Penny, Amelia M. ; Pippenger, Kate ; Renaudie, Johan ; Rillo, Marina C. ; Smith, Jansen ; Steinbauer, Manuel ; Sugawara, Mauro ; Tomašových, Adam ; Yasuhara, Moriaki ; Hull, Pincelli M.:
Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales.
In: Science. Bd. 389 (2025) Heft 6755 . - S. 64-68.
ISSN 1095-9203
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adr6700

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Abstract

Climate and ecosystem dynamics vary across timescales, but research into climate-driven vegetation dynamics usually focuses on singular timescales. We developed a spectral analysis–based approach that provides detailed estimates of the timescales at which vegetation tracks climate change, from 101 to 105 years. We report dynamic similarity of vegetation and climate even at centennial frequencies (149−1 to 18,012−1 year−1, that is, one cycle per 149 to 18,012 years). A breakpoint in vegetation turnover (797−1 year−1) matches a breakpoint between stochastic and autocorrelated climate processes, suggesting that ecological dynamics are governed by climate across these frequencies. Heightened vegetation turnover at millennial frequencies (4650−1 year−1) highlights the risk of abrupt responses to climate change, whereas vegetation-climate decoupling at frequencies >149−1 year−1 may indicate long-lasting consequences of anthropogenic climate change for ecosystem function and biodiversity. It is clear that the climate is changing quickly, but it is less clear how quickly ecosystems will be able to respond and adapt. Species can change in response to climate, but these responses may be nonlinear or lagged, and the timescales over which ecosystems change are not well understood. Fastovich et al. used fossil pollen records spanning 600,000 years and spectral analysis to identify how vegetation responds to climate change over a range of timescales. In this record, vegetation responded at timescales from hundreds to tens of thousands of years, but not at timescales shorter than about 150 years, suggesting that concerns about ecosystems lagging rapid climate change are warranted. —Bianca Lopez